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Truckers Signal Slowdown, Not all-Out Recession

Investors worried that the world’s stagnating economy might take a wrong turn and veer off a cliff and into recession can take heart from truckers.

According to Fitch Ratings, truck makers are an outrider for industrial demand, and their latest plans to cut production signals a softening of global demand rather than an imminent return to global recession.

“Our view is that while growth expectations have fallen, a double-dip recession will be avoided. We expect the major advanced countries to grow at 1.3 per cent in 2011, increasing slightly to 1.5 per cent in 2012. Growth among the BRICS is forecast to be 6.8 per cent in 2011 and 6.7 per cent in 2012. In 2012 weakness in Europe, especially in southern Europe, is likely to be offset by stronger demand in Japan and the U.S.,” the ratings agency said.

“The volatile truckmaking market, a bellwether for industrial demand, broadly echoes Fitch’s macroeconomic growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012,” Fitch said.

Neil Winton – November 3, 2011

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