Long Term Electric Vehicle Sales Estimates Pared Back
Electric sports car maker Tesla Motors of Fremont, California has brought forward the launch date of its first car, the Model S, by one month to June, and investment banker Morgan Stanley has raised its sales targets slightly.
But Morgan Stanley expects long-term ramp-up of Tesla new models to be smaller than expected.
Morgan Stanley raised it Model S sales forecast to 3,000 from 2,000 for 2012, and added 1,000 for 2013 and 2014 for totals of 16,000 and 19,000. The Tesla S is priced between $57,400 and $92,400.
Morgan Stanley said Tesla’s second car, the Model X, has been positively received, while the Gen 3 model has been brought forward to 2016 from 2017. But overall, Morgan Stanley has scaled down its long-term estimates for electric vehicles, which has cut the forecast for the Gen3, potentially Tesla’s biggest seller, by 40 per cent.
“Slower global growth and lower fuel prices could attack consumer demand to pay a premium for green technology while impairing government’s ability to fund the gap,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said.
The Tesla S goes on sale in Europe next year.
Tesla sells battery packs and chargers to Daimler of Germany for its Smart and A class electric vehicles, and electric power-train systems to Toyota of Japan for its RAV4 EV. Daimler also has a 7.2 per cent stake in Tesla.
Neil Winton – May 15, 2012