Higher prices for gasoline prices in the U.S. have usually persuaded forecasters to cut sales estimates.
But according to UBS Investment Research, this time the reverse may be true, for a while at least.
“There is a growing argument that rising gas prices will actually drive higher sales as new cars and trucks are 17 to 20 per cent more fuel efficient than the average vehicle,” UBS analyst Colin Langan said.
This might bring sales forward though, so long-term the impact might be neutralised.
“It is important to distinguish between pulling forward demand and incremental demand. We agree that future buyers may accelerate their purchases as gas rises. That said higher gas cuts into discretionary income and may lower auto demand slightly,” Langan said.
Meanwhile Morgan Stanley raised its sales estimate for 2012 in the U.S. to 14.8 million from an earlier estimate of 14 million, while the projection for 2013 rises to 15.5 million from 15 million.
U.S. car and light truck sales in 2011 were 12.8 million, an increase of 10.3 per cent from 2010.
Neil Winton – April 2, 2012
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