Ferrari Shares Stall; Is Porsche EV Failure Spooking Investors?
Echoes from the Porsche electric car debacle could be spooking Ferrari shareholders, as the Italian supercar maker prepares to launch its own EV.
Ferrari’s share price is wallowing at lows for the year, defying a firmly established tradition. The shares always rally after management’s ultra-conservative profit forecasts, but not this time, yet. Ferrari shares dived after October’s forecasts, but the recovery refuses to kick-in, raising the question that some investors may perceive problems over the horizon.
Investment banks remain bullish and unruffled by this, but the share price remains firmly in the dumps weeks after it should have started to rally.
Could the market for luxury goods, which seems to thrive even through the roughest economic waters, finally be running out of road? Is there a compelling competitor about to unveil stunning, sexy sports cars? Ferrari’s competitors like VW’s Lamborghini, Britain’s McLaren or financially troubled Aston Martin don’t seem close to a meaningful challenge.
Could a Chinese automaker be about to launch its own range of snarling, howling, beguiling sports cars for the super-rich? They would certainly have the resources to do it, but the kind of cache Ferrari has built up over the years takes decades to match.
Ferrari Elettrica will be launched next year
Could investor hesitancy be linked to the launch next year of Ferrari’s first electric vehicle, the $580,000 Elettrica? The launch will take place as uncertainties about the future of EVs gather pace. Ferrari hasn’t revealed how much it has spent on EV research, but analysts reckon it could be up to €5 billion, although that would include research for plug-in hybrids too. Ferrari wouldn’t have embarked on such an investment without making sure its buyers would embrace electric, but it has cut its forecast for EVs in its lineup for 2030 to 20% from an early plan for 40%. Ferrari hasn’t revealed the extent of any orders for the Elettrica.
Frank Schwope, automotive consultant and automotive industry lecturer at FHM Köln, points out Ferrari does have potential hurdle to jump.
“A typical Ferrari driver is likely to strongly prefer a combustion engine. Porsche has already had to acknowledge this. And with an electric motor, many special features are no longer necessary,” Schwope said.
Rally still awaited
Meanwhile the Ferrari share price refuses to climb away from the lows. In January the shares reached just over €480, slid through October to just over €420. The price started to plunge on October 9, the Capital Markets Day meeting, reaching €325 by October 14 because of the uninspiring long-term profit outlook. Since then, the shares have rallied a bit, but fell back again to around €333.50 ($388.9) Wednesday.
On Ferrari’s Capital Markets Day, CEO Benedetto Vigna’s sales forecast of at least €9 billion ($10.5 billion) in 2030 implied sales growth might average only about 5% a year, not the nearly 10% a year it has achieved for 10 years.
Most investment banks have remained loyal, continuing with their most positive ratings based on Ferrari’s impeccable record of making not quite enough of their supercars to meet demand. from the super-rich.
Investment bank UBS continues with a typical view of Ferrari, retaining its “Buy” rating, with a 12-month price target of $563 (€485.30).
Deliberately conservative
“In our view, the targets outlined at the last CMD were deliberately conservative, reflecting Ferrari’s focus on preserving brand scarcity and avoiding an overly aggressive pricing strategy, an approach that contrasts with missteps by some luxury peers,” UBS said in a recent research note entitled “2026 Outlook: Putting strategic conservatism to the test”.
UBS said 2026 should demonstrate the resilience of Ferrari’s business model and reinforce its status as one of the luxury sector’s most compelling long-term growth stories. Important issues in 2026 will include developments in the U.S., which accounts for 24% of sales, test Ferrari’s ability to deliver above mid-single digit growth and reveal further details about that first electric vehicle.
Reuters Breakingviews columnist Neil Unmack said internal combustion engines may be mostly phased out in Europe by 2035.
“While there may be exemptions for carbon-neutral fuels, the risk is that customers will be less keen to pay high prices for expensive EVs. Ferrari’s first such vehicle, due next year, will feature sound sensors to enhance driver’s aural experience and a battery indemnity,” Unmack said.
Unmack cited data showing Ferrari hybrids had performed much worse than pure ICE cars in terms of depreciation.
Will EU CO2 decision lift Ferrari?
This fear of an abrupt end to ICE sales in Europe may be worrying Ferrari shareholders. But European Union politicians appear to be close to delaying the ban and introducing a policy that extends the life of hybrids and plug-in hybrids as well as ICE vehicles. An EU meeting in December may also give the green light to so-called eFuels, which would extend the life of ICE vehicles. Ferrari shareholders may be waiting for an EU decision which might well prove a positive catalyst for companies like Ferrari.
Analyst Schwope said Ferrari’s impressive performance may have to throttle back a bit, but long-term success is likely. Porsche’s problems with its EVs were a warning signal.
“Perhaps Ferrari has now exhausted its luxury strategy to a certain extent,” Schwope said in an email exchange.
“The company has been able to deliver astonishingly strong margins in recent years. However, super-luxury cannot grow indefinitely, as it then loses its exclusivity. Porsche, a ‘mass manufacturer’ that can hardly be compared to Ferrari, is currently demonstrating how quickly the high can come to an end. However, Ferrari is likely to retain its super-luxury status,” Schwope said.
Porsche has not released details of its EV losses, but it reported a nearly $1.1 billion third-quarter operating loss with a total loss of about $3.6 billion for the first nine months. These numbers included scaling back EV plans, the costs of returning to ICE, U.S. tariffs, and lower demand in China.
Porsche has delayed new electric models and extended ICE production.
Most front-line analysts are still bullish on Ferrari, and it seems only investment researcher Jefferies has a cautious “hold” rating on the company. Jefferies didn’t respond to an invitation to comment.
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