China’s Geely, Hiding In Plain Sight, Cranks Up European Sales

China’s Geely, Hiding In Plain Sight, Cranks Up European Sales.

“BYD is too Chinese in its strategy. Geely has more knowledge of world-wide car markets and the customer.”

Europe’s carmakers are under siege from the east, and by 2030 BYD is everybody’s favorite to beat SAIC’s MG, and the Chery brands to be China’s market share leader here.

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Ltd, better known as just Geely, has other ideas and has launched sales campaigns across Europe, led by its own brand Geely EX5 compact SUV. It might look as though Geely is coming to Europe belatedly, but the reverse is the truth. 

Geely is one of China’s biggest automakers and it has been operating in Europe for years disguised as the owner of Volvo, Polestar, Lotus, half of Smart, and London electric taxis. Geely owns a 10% stake in Mercedes. It has big ambitions in Europe and is about to unveil another new vehicle, the Starray EM-I, a plug-in hybrid SUV slightly cheaper and smaller than the EX5.

According to Berenberg Bank, sales of Chinese sedans and SUVs  in Europe will peak at a market share of between 12 and 15% between 2030 and 2035. The bank said Chinese manufacturers accounted for less than 1% of the European market in 2021. This accelerated to about 6.6% last year and could reach 11 to 12% by 2028.

Investment bank UBS calls for at least a 15% Chinese market share in 2030. These sales will be driven mainly by electric vehicles, but Chinese manufacturers are still producing a wide range of options including hybrids, plug-in hybrids and internal combustion engines.

Almost no Geelys
In 2025, Geely brands were the biggest Chinese manufacturers in Western Europe with sales of 381,285 and a market share of 3.2%. But that included 304,400 Volvos. 47,500 Polestars, with the rest made up by Smart, Lynk & Co, and premium brand Zeekr, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Almost no actual Geelys.

Western Europe comprises the five big markets of Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain. 

The biggest pure Chinese brand last year was SAIC’s  MG with sales of 280,000, BYD 176,000, Chery’s mainly Jaecoo and Omoda 109,000 and Xpeng 21,000. BYD was late to the market and its sales increase was an unlikely 270%, but as the biggest EV maker in China many believe it will be the biggest winner in all of Europe by 2030.

Not according to Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of Germany’s Center for Automotive Research. Dudenhoeffer says BYD has the wrong approach to Europe. Geely’s is superior.

“Geely sold 3.4 million cars in 2025, and BYD 4.5 million. However, BYD has no sound marketing and sales system. It just runs in volumes at any price and cost. I think the growth story of BYD is dangerous. In Germany it burns money. Sales are mainly preregistered cars by dealers. Residual values are in jeopardy. And it just has plug-in cars and EVs which in Europe is 33% of the market. So it has several problems,” Dudenhoeffer said in email exchange.

Geely will sell more than BYD and make more money
“In contrast, Geely has a sound strategy. It has with Volvo immense knowledge of designing, producing and selling light premium and premium cars. It knows how sales systems work. In my mind, in the long run BYD becomes – like Tesla – a growth problem. However, not Geely. So in 5 years, I think Geely Group will sell more cars (than BYD in Europe) and show better profitability,” Dudenhoeffer said.

“BYD is too Chinese in its strategy. Geely has more knowledge of world-wide car markets and the customer.” Dudenhoeffer added.

Dudenhoeffer’s remarks came before the Chinese stock market shake-out which hit local EV makers last week, led by BYD. Investors were worried about EV makers’ long-term ability to generate profits in China, where over-production has led to extreme competition. 

This makes the European market even more attractive for Chinese manufacturers. The likes of BYD and Geely will be able price their vehicles much higher than in home markets because their hugely superior efficiency makes higher prices possible and profits easier. 

Reuters BreakingViews column suggested the beating taken by EV makers might have been overdone. 

BYD, SAIC and Chery have been moving some production to Europe to avoid European Union tariffs. BYD already has factories in Hungary and Turkey. Xpeng is assembling vehicles at a Magna Steyr plant in Austria. Chery builds vehicles in Barcelona, Spain.

Geely has the inside track here with its well-established Volvo/Polestar production. Geely has also sought more European production by seeking to use some of Ford Europe’s excess factory capacity, according to Reuters. The two companies are also discussing sharing technology, including automated driving, Reuters said, quoting people familiar with the discussions. Geely also collaborates with Renault of France, building a couple of its SUVs, and plans for more deals.

After sales concern
According to investment researcher Jefferies, in a recent report, Geely plans to advance ICE and EV segments for its own name brand. Echoing Dudenhoeffer, Jefferies said Geely wants after-sales service to keep pace with, or stay ahead of, market expansion to avoid damaging the brand.

“Competing against higher-priced models like the VW ID.4, Kia EV3, and BMW iXi, EX5 stands out with a clear advantage in features, warranty and standard EV equipment. While expanding sales channels and local production in Europe will require strong execution capabilities, we believe that Geely’s “One Geely” strategy, leveraging synergies across its global brands and supported by Volvo’s resources, could enhance the company’s efficiency in executing its European expansion,” Jefferies said in the report.