China EV Growth Slows, “Social Leasing” Gains Support

China EV Growth Slows, “Social Leasing” Gains Support.

“The threat is now coming from ICE, hybrids and PHEVs, which avoid anti-subsidy tariffs    

Forecasters still expect a healthy overall increase in the European EV market in 2025, although longer term targets based on European Union CO2 emissions rules still look impossibly high. 

According to Schmidt Automotive Research, China’s EV market share in Western Europe held steady at 1.6% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, while is sales of ICE, hybrid and PHEVs accelerated to 3.2% from 2.2%. UBS slashed almost two million EVs from its sales forecast for Europe in 2030. That now stands at 6.4 million, down from 8.3 million forecast in February, for a market share of 37.8%. European EV makers might be feeling less pressure, but it’s not really good news for them.

“The threat is now coming from ICE, hybrids and PHEVs, which avoid anti-subsidy tariffs, in place since November. However, unfortunately for incumbents this is where high profit margins are still made, and where the transition (to EVs) funds were due to be harvested from,” said Matt Schmidt, found of Schmidt Automotive Research.

Last October the EU raised tariffs on Chinese EVs ranging from 17% to 35.3% on top of the existing 10% import duty, potentially reaching a total of 45.3% for some manufacturers. The totals depended on the degree of cooperation with the EU investigation.

Schmidt expects EV sales in Western Europe to rise 30% to 2.52 million in 2025 to reach 21.5% of the market compared with 16.7% in 2024.

Western Europe includes the big five markets of Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain.     

Battery quality holding sales back
Autovista Group, part of J.D.Power, expects sales of EVs in all of Europe of 2.5 million in 2025, and 8.5 million in 2030, closer to UBS’s old forecast. At an Autovista Group webinar, chief economist Christof Engelskirchen. referring to pluses and minuses of EV sales development, said sales forecasts remained intact, PHEVs are regaining popularity, while buyers of EVs express strong intent to repurchase. On the negative side sales were getting harder because early adopters were now satisfied. In the second-hand market the difficulty in establishing the quality of batteries was holding sales back. The high cost of public charging was also a negative.

An article in the Sunday Times of London quoted a report from energy consultant BFY Group, that said using rapid public charging in Britain could cost up to 10 times more than home charging. This the case in Britain where home charging carries a lower rate of tax, and an accusation that’s repeated right across Europe. The British Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee has said this cost disparity is probably the biggest challenge to the electric vehicle transition in Britain.

The webinar was also told that the EU’s CO2 emissions rules, designed to force new car buyers to only have a zero emissions choice by 2035, was coming under pressure. This year, a tightening in the rules was changed to allow compliance over two more years. Political pressure was building to water down the rules and extend the use of ICE beyond 2035. 

Social leasing
One idea being pushed by green lobbyists is “Social Leasing”, which uses subsidies to help those on lower incomes buy electric. France had a scheme, which expired last year, that allowed participants to lease an EV for just a monthly fee of between 100 euros and 150 euros, with the right to buy or renew after 3 years. Brussels based Transport & Environment said Social Leasing could provide affordable EVs for 3 million households in Europe. It could be financed by revenues from the EU’s carbon market and Social Climate Fund, T&E said, quoting data from the Oko-Institut. France is expected to renew the scheme later this year.

“To put an end to dependence on fossil fuel cars and the threat of rising costs, many households need help switching to electric cars. EVs remain unaffordable even for middle income households, while purchase subsidies too often benefit those who don’t need them. said Marie Chéron, e-mobility specialist at T&E.    

“Social leasing can make clean, cheap-to-run electric cars a reality for millions who are otherwise stuck with expensive polluting vehicles”