Russia Lags, But Long-Term Its Energy Advantage Will Pay Off
Car sales in China are set to rise 20 per cent in 2010, and as sales in Europe and the U.S. falter, the so-called BRICs are becoming increasingly important to sustaining the global recovery, according to automotive consultancy J.D.Power.
J.D.Power believes China’s car sales will reach 15.6 million in 2010, which would make it the world’s largest market again. This figure is also the equivalent of more than the rest of the BRIC markets – Brazil, Russia, India – combined.
“Brazil, which has been experiencing solid economic growth, is projected to reach sales of 3.3 million in 2010, an increase of eight per cent from 2009,” said J.D.Power senior vice president John Humphrey.
India sales will jump 19 per cent in 2010 to 2.5 million.
Sales in Russia, which halved in 2009 to 1.5 million, are showing signs of recovery and are likely to reach 1.6 million this year.
“New vehicle sales in Russia will likely not achieve the peak levels seen in 2008 until 2014,” Humphrey said.
“Deterioration in consumer confidence on the heels of a significant rate of GDP decline, combined with tightening credit, led to a massive decline in the Russia automotive market,” said J.D.Power’s Jeff Schuster.
“Although it remains the most fragile and tenuous economy of the four BRIC nations, Russia has a distinct advantage over the other emerging markets – deep reserves of oil that fuel its economy in better years. In contrast, China and Brazil, in particular, remain vulnerable to global fuel uncertainties and are continuing efforts to turn to alternative energy sources, notably in their transportation bases,” Schuster said.
Neil Winton – July 15, 2010