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BMW, VW Will Lead Belated Electric Charge But FCA, Toyota Lag

BMW, VW Will Lead Belated Electric Charge But FCA, Toyota Lag.

China Sprints Ahead With 3.4 Million In 2020   .

In the national stakes China was first with 14 million miles driven, Europe 2nd with 7.83 million miles and north America 3rd with 6.15 million.

The world’s carmakers are planning to crank up electric car production after 2020 led by BMW and Volkswagen, but Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and surprisingly Toyota look like being laggards, according to BMI Research.

The Renault-Nissan alliance and Tesla have led the move to electrification, while BMI doesn’t mention the involvement of China, which looks like leading the race to make electric cars the first choice in the mass market sector.

According to Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) at the University of Duisberg-Essen in Germany, 600,000 electric cars will be sold in China this year, and that’s just a start.

“The number of electric car sales in China will rise to 2 million in 2018, 2.7 million in 2019 and 3.4 million 2020, if the government mandate that 8% of car sales are electric is introduced next year. It’s  12% by 2020,” Dudenhoeffer said.

This year 600,000 electric vehicles will be sold in China, he said.

With the rest of the world struggling to reach electric car sales of 2%, that puts China in the driving seat.

But Europe is on the move at last.

“The Renault-Nissan alliance is already producing and selling EVs in notable volumes. At the opposite end, FCA will not be adopting an EV strategy as such, choosing instead to launch models as and when required to meet Zero Emission Vehicles policies. Toyota Motor is also new to the EV era, announcing plans to have a full electric car on the market by 2021, but not a goal for a large scale product strategy so far,” BMI Research said in a report.

“2025 will be a big year for meeting goals, which could prove to be the tipping point we are looking for,” BMI said.

Tesla
VW expects sales of between 2 and 3 million, or up to 25% of its sales. Mercedes is going for 15 to 25%, which could be between 450,000 and 750,000 EVs. BMW also targets 15 to 25%, which would add 300,000 to 500,000 extra autos, BMI said. Tesla wants 1 million sales a year from 2020, and Porsche is gunning for 50% electric by 2023, or about 120,000.

There are varying strategies though.

“Ford is taking a more mixed approach of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs,” BMI said.

Meanwhile Alix Partners, the global consultancy, underlines  Dudenhoeffer of CAR’s China point. Alix announced a new quarterly index designed to track the progress of automakers in embracing electrification.

The index measures electric miles travelled and in the 2nd quarter of 2017 Tesla was number one, but five companies in the top 10 were Chinese. Renault-Nissan was 2nd, GM 5th, VW 11th and Toyota 12th. The index doesn’t include standard hybrids like the Prius because they derive some power from fossil fuels.

In the national stakes China was first with 14 million miles driven, Europe 2nd with 7.83 million miles and north America 3rd with 6.15 million. 

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