“climate change is not a planetary emergency that will bring down civilisation. It is one, but only one, of many problems that we will have to deal with over the century”

     Bjorn Lomborg has ruthlessly and comprehensively skewered  blowhards, liars, poseurs and government shills like Al Gore, David Miliband, Sir Nicholas Stern, and George Monbiot in his latest book “Cool It”, which exposes the dangerous, counterproductive nonsense being peddled by those who would impose a treaty like Kyoto on us.

    Danish statistician and political economist Lomborg, has already raised the collective blood pressure of hand-wringing politicians and hysterical environmental organisations like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, by exposing some of the fallacies behind their junk science arguments about climate change with his first book, “The Skeptical Environmentalist”,

    Lomborg doesn’t argue with the theory that humans have made some contribution to warming the climate, but he rails against many of the actions being planned to combat it as often pointless, wasteful or counterproductive.

    “Global warming is real and man-made. It will have a serious impact on humans and the environment toward the end of this century. Yet, it will have none of the catastrophic, end-of-civilisation characteristics that are so often portrayed in the press,” Lomborg said.

    Not to mention by politicians and collectivist activists.

    This hysteria, akin sometimes to almost religious fanaticism, breeds bad policy, he said, but also ignores some of benefits from a warming climate.

    Lomborg said in “Cool It” that those worried about the warming of the climate say that increasing heat will kill hundreds of thousands of innocents every year, but fail to point out the other side of the equation – that the absence of cold in winter months will actually save millions more.

    Barely recognisable impact
    Lomborg reckons that many expensive and elaborate schemes designed to save the climate will do no such thing, or in reality have a barely recognisable impact. If world governments did in fact keep exactly to the terms of the Kyoto agreement, and eventually persuade deniers like China, India, the U.S. and Brazil to take part, the climate would only be cooled by a miniscule amount in the next 100 years, but at great cost to the world economy.

    Rather than pouring money down the drain pursuing projects which won’t have much impact but which will make the likes of Al Gore and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown feel smug and increase their power over ordinary citizens, Lomborg says there are many projects which could be undertaken instead, which would have terrific economic payback and benefit many of the world’s poor.

    Meanwhile, Lomborg says we should increase spending on technology which will gradually make our use of energy more efficient, and eventually provide high technology renewable sources which will replace fossil fuels which spew out carbon dioxide (CO2). He wants governments to commit to spending 0.05 per cent of GDP on research of non-carbon emitting technology.

    Lomborg also junks arguments used by the likes of Gore, who  tried to link global warming to natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, and the flood disasters in Europe in 2002. Hurricane activity is not on the increase, but the movement of people to live in areas which are prone to hurricanes is. Also huge flood disasters are often more about lack of investment in protection, or dim-witted development, rather than some doomsday scenario prompted by a warming climate.   

    Fight malaria
    Lomborg wants governments to invest in schemes which will fight malaria, and AIDs, and build up safe, fresh water supplies.

    Lomborg pours scorn on Gore for using emotional arguments which don’t stand up to scrutiny. Gore makes much of the plight of polar bears in the Arctic, but Lomborg says currently because of the changing climate, an estimated 15 polar bears are dying every year. Meanwhile up to 50 polar bears are shot by licensed hunters ever year. Why not stop the licensed hunters first, suggests Lomborg.

    Using his statistical tools, Lomborg analyses the consequences of warming and of actions proposed by governments and comes up with some breathtaking conclusions. He said the E.U.’s plan to keep temperature increases to 2 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels will cost more than $80 trillion, more than five times the total economic impact of global warming.

    He also looks at the number of deaths predicted from global warming in 2050 – estimated at 365,000 from increasing respiratory disorders. But there will be 1.7 million fewer deaths from cardiovascular diseases, a net gain of 1.4 million lives thanks to global warming.

    “Blowhards, liars, poseurs and government shills”
    And just to give you some justification for the bullets fired in the opening paragraph – “blowhards, liars, poseurs and government shills” - Al Gore, former vice-president, failed presidential candidate, noble prize winner, Oscar winner and blowhard, relentlessly exaggerates the case for global warming, for instance, with his claim that world sea levels will rise 20 feet. Even the IPCC (Independent Police Complaints Commission) only expects a maximum of one foot. Lomborg tracks down the facts behind another ludicrous Gore claim that the Gulf Stream will shut down because of melting ice in Greenland.

    Gore talks about “water-stress” from global warming. Lomborg says it is undoubtedly true that some people in Africa will find more difficulty finding water because of the warming climate, but Gore fails to point out that many more Africans will have their water supplies boosted by a warmer climate.

    Lomborg skewers Britain’s swivel eyed environmentalist poseur George Monbiot for sloppy thinking when he claims that every facet of global warming is calamitous, and says if any governments listen to his call for OECD nations to but CO2 emissions by 96 per cent by 2030 would simply plunge the world back into the Stone Age. Monbiot, who also wants to savage air travel, if listened to would deny money for real challenges like fighting AIDS, malaria and malnutrition or improving access to clean water which are attainable and affordable aims.

    Every worst case scenario
    Government shill Sir Nicholas Stern published his Review last year and has deliberately used every worst case scenario to present the most worrisome predictions, presumably at the behest of his Blair government employers. Lomborg says the Review is massively exaggerated towards scary scenarios. “The damages from climate change (the benefits of action) are vastly inflated……. The costs of action are vastly underestimated,” said Lomborg.

    Oh yes, and the liar. That’s British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, with this gem.

    “People say there should be a debate about global warming. But I tell you the debate is over; the reckoning has begun. The truth is staring us in the face. Climate change is here, in our country; it is an issue for our generation as well as future generations; and those who deny it are the flat-earthers of the 21^st century,” says the over-promoted Miliband, quoted by Lomborg.

    The British government has been shrill in talking about climate change, but at the same time has relentlessly expanded Heathrow and other airports.

    “Since the new Labour government in 1997 promised to cut emissions by a further 15 per cent by 2010, emissions have increased by 3 per cent,” he said.

    Depressingly, Britain’s Conservatives have fallen for this climate change nonsense too, with leader David Cameron pledging to use green taxes to “change the climate”, as if this was possible.

    Neglect of priorities
    Lomborg said slashing CO2 massively won’t do any good and will squander scarce resources better employed solving current problems.

     “Cutting CO2 simply doesn’t matter much for most of the world’s important issues. From polar bears to poverty, we can do immensely better with other policies,” he said.

    Politicians and experts are trying to prod us into this essentially self-destructive action based on slovenly thinking.

    “There is a unifying theme behind the sloppy reasoning of the E.U, Monbiot’s single-minded focus on stopping flying or Gore’s coy lack of interest in the cost and efficiency of his solution. It is neglect of thinking about priorities.”

     We should stop panicking, and eschew grandstanding.

    “First climate change is not a planetary emergency that will bring down civilisation. It is one, but only one, of many problems that we will have to deal with over the century. Second, there are no short-term solutions to this problem,” Lomborg said.

    “I hope that we will cool our conversation, rein in the exaggerations and start focussing where we can do the most good,” he said.

    In 40 years time, Lomborg hopes for this epitaph for the world’s policy makers.

    “We didn’t just do something that made us feel good, we did something that actually did good.”

    Cool It, The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide To Global Warming By Bjorn Lomborg, published by Marshall Cavendish £19.99

 Neil Winton – November 12, 2007