Maybe it’s the Christian upbringing that makes me so generous; perhaps it’s my inbred urge to help the afflicted, not to kick a dog when its down, but here’s some free advice for the Labour Party.

Anyone who has honoured my humble web site with a visit or two will know that my detestation of the Labour Party and all who sail in it (except Frank Field) knows no bounds. Labour’s arrogant stupidity, its egregious incompetence, its ignorance of history, its smug self-satisfaction that it knows the answers, as all it touches turns to mush, fills me with utter detestation. I simply don’t understand that there could be one person left in England with half a brain who would still vote for these idiots.

What is most difficult to understand is the absolute inability for Labourites to muster any self-knowledge at all. You would think that people like Gordon Brown, Ed Balls, Alan Johnson, Harriet Harperson-Dromey to name but a few, would have learnt by now that they can’t organise a pissup in brewery. They utterly fail to grasp the theory of unintended consequences. You would think that at least they would be smart enough to stop their tinkering, and sit back and enjoy the limo while it lasts. At least that would stop the damage.  

Self knowledge would tell them they can’t do anything. Every problem the “movement” tries to solve with its fine “principles” not only doesn’t work, it makes everything worse. Just think falling education standards (with the corrupt bureaucracy designed to falsify data), health (MRSA, mixed wards), transport (no evidence required) rising violent crime (dodgy data here too), the destruction of the world’s best private pension arrangements. Labour can’t do the simplest things. Watching the party apparatchiks floundering around in the wake of the by-election and local government disasters shows they just don’t get it. But the rest of us do, and that’s why the Labour Party is doomed for oblivion at the next general election.

Call an election now
But there is a route which will mitigate the forthcoming disaster. I know that as this advice stands no chance of being followed, I can give it knowing that I will not be blamed for saving the Labour from carrying on along its death-march route.

If Labour was to call an election in the autumn it would undoubtedly get a hammering, but one from which it might recover by the end of one parliamentary term.

The Tories would win, but they’d inherit Gordon Brown’s mess. By the time, say early next year, when the economy craters, it would soon be quite easy to point the finger of suspicion at the current incumbents. It would be possible, if the economy tanks for a couple of years, to imagine a scenario where after 5 years and with a new Labour leader like say James Purnell the Tories might be quite seriously weakened by some cheap political shots and could be turfed out after one term. The beauty of this plan for Labour is that it represents the least-worse option, providing the minimum time remaining on the sidelines and out of the limos.

Even more hated
Just consider the most likely scenario. Brown hangs on to the bitter end until the summer of 2010. By then the economy is in tatters, the Labour party is even more hated (hard to imagine I know) than it is today not least because it will be quite clear who is responsible for the economic chaos (not to mention disasters in all other important areas of the nation’s activities). You could quite easily imagine a Canadian style wipe-out – in 1993 Canadian Conservatives went from being the governing party to only having 2 seats. Labour would not be in a position to sit in the back of government limos for perhaps a generation.

The idea that some wrinkly like Jack Straw, or a young thruster in the form of David (POHGY) Miliband (since you ask – pillock on his gap year, according to Labour stalwart Bob Marshall Andrews), would seek to displace Brown now, and lead the party to a humiliating defeat is unlikely to say the least. Brown won’t fall on his sword now, but might he be persuaded that the honour of the party, and its future, was best served by an early election? No chance. That would require a modicum of courage and self-awareness.

Never again
So the future looks bright. The Labour will become so degraded, it may well never again be a party of governance. That of course assumes that the Conservatives led by David Cameron rise to the occasion. The current state of politics does add credence to my long held view that all the Tories had to do was sit tight and wait for the Labour party to self destruct (well, dust down a few policies here, a few new ideas there). Unfortunately, the ditz, hand-wringing tendency in the party led by Cameron decided self-flagellation was required, giving us the “nasty” party and other stupidities. If only the Tory membership had held fast, ignored Cameron’s spin, and stuck with a proper Tory like David Davis.

 Neil Winton – July 29, 2008